" THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS DEMAND FOR CUSTOMER SERVICE REPRESENTATIVES ... AS THEIR TASKS CONTINUE TO BE AUTOMATED ."
THE FUTURE : SMALLER , SMARTER WORKFORCE ?
Contact centers are facing in the coming decade a U . S . labor market characterized by slowing population , hence workforce growth , and at the same time slightly reduced demand for agents caused in part by automation .
The U . S . Bureau of Labor Statistics ( BLS ) released in September 2023 its employment projections from 2022 to 2032 . Here are the key takeaways :
• Real Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) growth rate is projected to return to its 1.9 % compound annual rate of change from 2002-2012 in the 2022-32 decade . This is slightly lower than the 2012-22 decade ' s annual rate of 2.1 %. The GDP growth is " stemming mostly from annual productivity gains of 1.9 [%] over the same period ," says the BLS .
• Civilian noninstitutional population growth also continues to slow . It is projected to increase by 18.7 million to 282.6 million in 2032 , or 0.7 %, which is less than the 20.7 million increase or 0.8 % that occurred over the 2012−22 decade .
• Total employment is projected to increase to 169.1 million and grow 0.3 % annually between 2022 and 2032 , which is slower than the 1.2 % annual growth recorded over the 2012-22 decade and slower than the 0.5 % annual increase forecasted for the 2021-2031 period .
• The slower projected population growth , in turn , is expected to further shrink growth in the civilian labor force ; it is expected to increase from 164.3 million in 2022 to 170.7 million in 2032 . This translates to a projected annual growth rate of 0.4 %: slower than the 0.6 % annual growth rate during the 2012−22 decade .
• The labor force participation ( LFP ) rate is projected to fall from 62.2 % in 2022 to 60.4 % in 2032 . The principal factor driving the projected decline in LFP is a greater share of individuals over the age of 65 .
THE SLOWER PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH , IN TURN , IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER SHRINK GROWTH IN THE CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE ...
-- U . S . BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS ( BLS )
" THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS DEMAND FOR CUSTOMER SERVICE REPRESENTATIVES ... AS THEIR TASKS CONTINUE TO BE AUTOMATED ."
-- BLS
" Changes in the labor force have an outsized effect on economic growth ," wrote author BLS economist Kevin S . Dubina . " Slower labor force growth over the last few decades has contributed to slower [ GDP ] growth .
" The slowdown in labor force growth has been driven by two demographic trends : lower population growth and an aging of the U . S . population .
" Over the next decade , demographic changes are expected to reverberate throughout the U . S . economy and affect GDP growth .
" The aging of the baby-boom generation has already lowered the overall labor force participation rate , a trend that is projected to continue as many baby boomers enter the 75-and-older age group by 2032 . Lower fertility rates will reduce population and labor force growth throughout the projection span ."
At the same time , there could be less need for contact center customer service agents over the 2022-2032 period , according to the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook .
The BLS forecasted that the number of customer service jobs , which include in-person as well as contact center , to decrease by 5 % from 2022 to 2032 , from 2.98 million to 2.82 million .
" There is expected to be less demand for customer service representatives , especially in retail trade , as their tasks continue to be automated ," reports the BLS . " Self-service systems , social media , and mobile applications enable customers to do simple tasks without interacting with a representative . Advancements in technology will gradually allow these automated systems to do even more tasks .
" Some companies will continue to use in-house service centers to differentiate themselves from competitors , particularly for complex inquiries such as refunding accounts or confirming insurance coverage .”
CONTINUED ON PAGE 10
A BLS article , “ Labor force and macroeconomic projections overview and highlights , 2022 – 32 ”, published in the September 2023 Monthly Labor Review , reports that productivity growth is projected to increase , at 1.9 % per year from 2022 to 2032 compared with 1.2 % per year from 2012 to 2022 , " similar to , although slightly slower than , growth recorded before 2012 ."
DECEMBER 2023 9